Forecasting and warning of unprecedented weather events

Golding, Brian

doi:10.57757/IUGG23-0487

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Forecasting and warning of unprecedented weather events

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Golding, Brian
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Golding, B. (2023): Forecasting and warning of unprecedented weather events, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-0487

Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz.de/pubman/item/item_5015926

Abstract

In a changing climate, the extremes of weather are changing – some becoming less likely, others becoming more likely. As a result, the incidence of events for which there is no recorded precedent is increasing. Warning systems have been effective at reducing the impact of severe weather – especially the impact in loss of life – and the United Nations has challenged our communities to provide this protection to all within the next four years. However, it is particularly difficult to protect people when unprecedented events occur. In this presentation I shall summarise the results of an analysis of several extreme weather events in 2021-2, identifying weaknesses in the warning systems that may have led to loss of life, property and essential services. I shall then review current research in monitoring, forecasting and communication that is aiming to fill these gaps.