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Abstract

The economic and human losses caused by drought are increasing in recent decades. It is very important to explore drought and understandthe propagation relationships between different drought for drought mitigation, early warning and ecological security.In recent years, many scholars have devoted themselves to isolating the impact of human activities on the drought propagation process, but the methods used are poorly generalized or have harsh application conditions. As the most advanced hydrological model in the world, PCR-GLOBWB can subdivide and quantify the impact of human activities on hydrological processes. Therefore, we used the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model to simulate the terrestrial water cycle process under human and natural scenarios (1961-2020) in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) respectively, and the effects of human activities on hydrological drought and drought propagation were evaluated comprehensively. The results show that human activities have exacerbated the hydrological drought in YRB (Variable increase in frequency, magnitude and duration). In the YRB, the propagation rate (PR) of meteorological drought to hydrological drought ranges from 45-75%, and the PT is 6-23 months. The PR decreased with percentage 1-60% due to human activities, and PT decreased (1-13 month).Furthermore, human activities have intensified the extent of the meteorological drought propagation to hydrological drought in the YRB. This study has important implications for drought damage mitigation and developing drought early warning measures.