Item

Abstract

Due to the influences of climate change and human activities, the resources and environments of the “One Belt and One Road” initiative are facing severe challenges. Using drought indicators, this study aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of the drought environment and the response of vegetation cover in the area to drought conditions. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) drought severity index (GRACE-DSI), GRACE water storage deficit index (GRACE-WSDI) and standardized precipitation index (SPI) were calculated to measure hydrological drought. Additionally, based on GRACE and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) data, groundwater data in Central Asia was retrieved to calculate the groundwater drought index using the GRACE Standardized Groundwater Level Index (GRACE-SGI). The findings indicate that, from 2000, Central Asia's annual precipitation decreased at a rate of 1.80 mm/year (p < 0.1), and its annual temperature increased slightly, at a rate of 0.008 °C/year (p = 0.62). Water storage decreased significantly at a rate of ‑3.53 mm/year (p < 0.001) and showed an increase-decrease-increase-decrease pattern. During the study period, the aridity in Central Asia deteriorated, especially on the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea and the Aral Sea basin. After 2020, most of Central Asia experienced droughts at both the hydrological and groundwater droughts levels and of varying lengths and severity. During the growing season, there was a substantial positive association between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and drought indicators such as GRACE-DSI and GRACE-WSDI. Nonetheless, the NDVI of cultivated land and grassland distribution areas in Central Asia displayed a strong negative correlation with GRACE-SGI. This study concludes that the arid environment in Central Asia affected the growth of vegetation. The ecological system in Central Asia may be put under additional stress if drought conditions continue to worsen. This paper explores the drought characteristics in Central Asia, especially those of groundwater drought, and analyzes the response of vegetation, which is very important for the ecological and environmental protection of the region.