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Abstract:
With the development of the China Western Development strategy, ensuring the safety of lives and property is essential for sustainable development. Climate change has significantly increased the frequency of landslides. Previous landslide risk management mostly focused on the residential area, but some landslides could trigger a cascading outburst flood hazard chain (LGFs). Quantitatively assessing the risk of LGFs is essential for comprehensive risk understanding. In this study, Geographic Information System (GIS) tools, a novel mass-balanced and momentum-balanced flux method, were integrated to couple a depth-averaged landslide model, a dam breach model, and a flood propagation model. This framework was applied to the potential risk of Suopoxiang landslide hazard chain in Danba County, China. Results indicate that the friction angle strongly influences LGFs risk by determining the dam height. While the landslide does not impact the local residential area, varying dam heights produce different inundation scenarios upstream and downstream. Peak discharge and flood duration exhibit linear relationships with dam elevation. The maximum discharge reaching 7724.91 and with a related lake can submerge Danba County. LGFs’ risk characteristics vary with dam height and involve multiple administrative domains, including energy, transportation, and disaster management. Effective LGFs’ risk mitigation requires coordination under local government leadership, leveraging integrated human and financial resources. From an engineering perspective, increasing the friction angle, achieved by reducing the landslide’s moisture content, could be an essential mitigation strategy. This framework offers a valuable reference for the prevention and control of landslide-induced flood hazard chains.
