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Language(s):
Dates:
2025-12-022026
Publication Status:
Finally published
Pages:
-
Publishing info:
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Table of Contents:
The long-term over-extraction of groundwater in the North China Plain (NCP) has resulted in permanent loss of groundwater storage, leading to geo-disasters, including surface subsidence, ground fissures, and seawater intrusion. Through integrating wide-area InSAR survey data with a mechanical model, this study reveals the detailed spatiotemporal dynamics of aquifer system deformation and groundwater storage loss (GWSL) across the entire plain. We used a Sentinel-1 A SAR dataset from 2017 to 2023, covering two ascending orbits (T40 and T142) with eight frames, along with time-series InSAR technology and a wide-area multi-track network adjustment model that incorporates spatial constraints. This allowed us to obtain seamless, millimeter-level accuracy time-series deformation sequences for the NCP. Three severe subsidence areas were identified, with the maximum vertical velocity exceeding −150 mm/year and the cumulative subsidence reaching up to 1 m. Thereafter, the time-series InSAR results and groundwater level data were modeled using cross-wavelet analysis to quantify the elastic recovery capacity of the Quaternary aquifer system in the NCP (with the elastic skeletal storage coefficient
ₖ
ₑ
ranging from 0.0002 to 0.021). This revealed significant differences in the aquifer response between the piedmont plain (mostly elastic deformation) and the flood plain (mostly plastic deformation). There was no elastic recovery in the subsidence funnel areas of the flood plain. Subsequently, InSAR observations were integrated with the volume strain model (InSAR-VSM) to construct a novel groundwater loss inversion model, yielding the first 2-km resolution dataset of GWSL for the NCP. The average annual groundwater loss from 2017 to 2023 was estimated to be −4.346 × 108 to −8.692 × 108 m3/yr. Finally, we systematically investigated the spatiotemporal variation patterns of land subsidence over the past 63 years in the NCP, under the combined influence of human activities (such as over-extraction of groundwater, the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP), and policies prohibiting groundwater extraction) and natural factors (such as extreme rainfall events and geological structures). The deformation shows a spatial migration characteristic from urban areas to agricultural land, with different deformation trends in the NCP. While urban deformation has stopped or reversed, agricultural areas continue to experience intensifying subsidence. This study characterizes the stress evolution features of the aquifer system at an ultra-high spatial resolution, providing crucial scientific support for adaptive groundwater management and the development of subsidence mitigation strategies in water-scarce sedimentary basins.
Rev. Type:
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Degree:
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