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  Performance of an Impact-Based Earthquake Early Warning System in the Alboran Sea

Escudero, L., Zollo, A., Mattesini, M., Rea, R., Elia, L., Colombelli, S., Buforn, E. (2025 online): Performance of an Impact-Based Earthquake Early Warning System in the Alboran Sea. - Seismological Research Letters.
https://doi.org/10.1785/0220240474

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Item Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz.de/pubman/item/item_5035372 Version Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz.de/pubman/item/item_5035372_1
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Escudero, Lucía1, 2, Author
Zollo, Aldo1, 2, Author
Mattesini, Maurizio1, 2, Author
Rea, Raffaele1, 2, Author
Elia, Luca1, 2, Author
Colombelli, Simona1, 2, Author
Buforn, Elisa1, 2, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Geo-INQUIRE, External Organizations, ou_5025076              

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 Abstract: This article presents the implementation and testing of a new P‐wave shaking‐forecast‐based earthquake early warning system (EEWS) at the Ibero‐Maghrebian region (IMR). The method integrates peak ground velocity (PGV) predictions derived from observed P‐wave amplitudes with region‐specific ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) to facilitate real‐time mapping of the potential damage zone. We determined empirical relationships between PGV and P‐wave peak amplitudes (in acceleration, velocity, and displacement) and magnitude, along with the development of a GMPE for earthquakes in the IMR. These relationships are validated in the EEWS application using data from the 2016 Alboran Sea seismic series (⁠ 5.0–6.4), which showed minimal discrepancies in origin time, epicenter location, and magnitude estimates compared to previous studies. A retrospective performance analysis for the 6.4 mainshock indicated lead times of 14–62 s at a PGV threshold of 0.20 cm/s, with lead times increasing with distance. At a higher threshold of 0.60 cm/s, the lead time was 20 s for distances up to 170 km. The accuracy of impact predictions improved over time, with successful alerts rising from 72% to 90% as the final predictions were made. Despite some limitations due to focusing on moderate‐magnitude earthquakes (⁠⁠), the EEWS method has proven effective for offshore events in areas with sparse

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2025-04-21
 Publication Status: Published online
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1785/0220240474
 Degree: -

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Project name : Geo-INQUIRE
Grant ID : 101058518
Funding program : Horizon Europe (HE)
Funding organization : European Commission (EC)

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Title: Seismological Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://gfzpublic.gfz.de/cone/journals/resource/journals447