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  Earthquake Fault Rupture Modeling and Ground-Motion Simulations for the Southwest Iceland Transform Zone Using CyberShake

Rojas, O., Monterrubio-Velasco, M., Rodríguez, J. E., Callaghan, S., Abril, C., Halldorsson, B., Kowsari, M., Bayat, F., Olsen, K. B., Gabriel, A.-A., de la Puente, J. (2025): Earthquake Fault Rupture Modeling and Ground-Motion Simulations for the Southwest Iceland Transform Zone Using CyberShake. - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 115, 69-85.
https://doi.org/10.1785/0120240064

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Item Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz.de/pubman/item/item_5034256 Version Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz.de/pubman/item/item_5034256_3
Genre: Journal Article

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https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2404.01533 (Preprint)
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[Submitted on 1 Apr 2024]
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 Creators:
Rojas, Otilio1, 2, Author
Monterrubio-Velasco, Marisol1, 2, Author
Rodríguez, Juan E.1, 2, Author
Callaghan, Scott1, 2, Author
Abril, Claudia1, 2, Author
Halldorsson, Benedikt1, 2, Author
Kowsari, Milad1, 2, Author
Bayat, Farnaz1, 2, Author
Olsen, Kim B.1, 2, Author
Gabriel, Alice-Agnes1, 2, Author
de la Puente, Josep1, 2, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Geo-INQUIRE, External Organizations, ou_5025076              

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 Abstract: CyberShake is a high‐performance computing workflow for kinematic fault‐rupture and earthquake ground‐motion simulation developed by the Statewide California Earthquake Center to facilitate physics‐based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). CyberShake exploits seismic reciprocity for wave propagation by computing strain green tensors along fault planes, which in turn are convolved with rupture models to generate surface seismograms. Combined with a faultwide hypocentral variation of each simulated rupture, this procedure allows for generating ground‐motion synthetics that account for realistic source variability. This study validates the platform’s kinematic modeling of physics‐based seismic wave propagation simulations in Southwest Iceland as the first step toward migrating CyberShake from its original study region in California. Specifically, we have implemented CyberShake workflows to model 2103 fault ruptures and simulate the corresponding two horizontal components of ground‐motion velocity on a 5 km grid of 625 stations in Southwest Iceland. A 500‐yr‐long earthquake rupture forecast consisting of 223 hypothetical finite‐fault sources of 5–7 was generated using a physics‐based model of the bookshelf fault system of the Southwest Iceland transform zone. For each station, every reciprocal simulation uses 0–1 Hz Gaussian point sources polarized along two horizontal grid directions. Comparison of the results in the form of rotation‐invariant synthetic pseudoacceleration spectral response values at 3, 4, and 5 s periods are in good agreement with the Icelandic strong motion data set and a suite of empirical Bayesian ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The vast majority of the physics‐based simulations fall within one standard deviation of the mean GMPE predictions, previously estimated for the area. At large magnitudes for which no data exist in Iceland, the synthetic data set may play an important role in constraining GMPEs for future applications. Our results comprise the first step toward comprehensive and physics‐based PSHA for Southwest Iceland.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2024-12-102025
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1785/0120240064
 Degree: -

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Project name : Geo-INQUIRE
Grant ID : 101058518
Funding program : Horizon Europe (HE)
Funding organization : European Commission (EC)

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Title: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 115 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 69 - 85 Identifier: CoNE: https://gfzpublic.gfz.de/cone/journals/resource/journals59