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Abstract:
In this study, based on the simulations from the Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6-LS3MIP), we investigate the contribution of land–atmosphere feedbacks in the future changes of extreme precipitation and the extreme tails of precipitation distribution over Australia. Here the cutoff scale, identifying the extreme tail in the probability distribution of daily precipitation, is employed as the indicator of extreme precipitation. Overall, in the mid-term and long-term projections, the weakening effect from land–atmosphere feedbacks results in a lower amplitude of the increase in the cutoff scale under the coupled experiment relative to the uncoupled experiment over the whole Australia, with the most pronounced reduction (56.8%) for the long-term projection under the low emission scenario. Spatially, the weakening effect depressing the increase of precipitation extremes, and the amplifying effect favoring extreme precipitation coexist in different periods and scenarios, but the former dominates the most regions of Australia. Moreover, the weakening effect also leads to a smaller upshift of the coupled experiment for the extreme tail of precipitation distribution in the future periods, revealing the decreased risk of extreme precipitation over the whole Australia due to land–atmosphere feedbacks. For extreme precipitation larger than the 99.7th percentile of daily precipitation P99.7, the largest decrease (172%) of the risk ratios from the uncoupled to coupled experiments can be seen in the long-term projection under the high emission scenario.
